Election 2014: Is Muratsuchi Afraid Yet?

The latest June 3rd primary vote tally from the California Secretary of State (as of June 23, 7:32am) should give South Bay Democratic Party leaders cause for alarm. in the e66th Assembly District, Republican contender David Hadley's slight 66 vote lead over incumbent Assemblymember Al Muratsuchi (D-Torrance) has grown to 552 votes over the last three weeks. A marginal lead has turned into a wider margin of victory for the challenger, and in anti-incumbent year like 2014, Democrats in California should take heed and take nothing for granted.

The California Democratic machine (the forced dues of public sector unions and millionaire donations from insider lobbyists) will pour two million dollars to keep the South Bay seat in Democratic hands. However, a new machine is growing in the South Bay, the South Bay One Hundred, which has put the fundraising and grass-roots organization of the Democratic Party on guard. The efforts are paying off already.

During the 2014 primary season, his campaign put out yard signs, but no mailers or fliers. Maybe the Democratic Party won't be sending in the $2 million that Muratsuchi needs to bury his opponent and win reelection, after all. 

Is Muratsuchi worried? 

He tried to run for the 26th State Senate District earlier this year, but a few days later published a press release announcing that he would run for reelection. Very likely, party leaders told Muratsuchi to get in line and hold onto a seat which may very likely be pulled out from under him.

Why did he want to run away from running for State Assembly once again?

Maybe he feels a sense of remorse for the nasty slash-and-burn campaign he ran against businessman Craig Huey in 2012.

He should.

Is Muratsuchi throwing in the towel? Perhaps he doesn't want another bruising election?

As an Assemblyman, Muratsuchi probably finds himself running against friends as well as making more enemies. After all, the tense political atmosphere in Sacramento has turned the stomachs of many politicians. One local leader was offered the chance to run for state assembly against Muratsuchi, but he turned it down to run for Sheriff, but also because partisan politics bothers him. He shared with Republican recruiters his concerns:

If you don't vote the party line, even if you don't agree with it, and you end up in a broom closet as your new office.

Partisan politics pulls a politician to vote for things not just according to what the constituents want, or the dictates of the Constitution (state and federal), but also the demands of one's caucus in the legislature. Vote-trading is crucial, and a legislator who wants to accomplish anything has to work with both sides, and sometimes has to support bills which he is personally and politically opposed to, but must vote on to get votes on other crucial legislation. Constituents, oaths of office, and the demands of the political leaders can drive a man's allegiances into the ground. Muratsuchi has experienced a great deal of this pressure, one must assume.

Has this partisanship pulled him away from the moderate values of the South Bay to the more extreme, left-leaning progressivism of Sacramento liberal Democratic politics?

During the 2012 election, candidate Muratsuchi touted himself as a moderate voice, "not an ideologue", yet the former Torrance School Board member's votes are consistently left-leaning compared to the values of his South Bay constituency. He voted to permit transgendered students to enter public school bathrooms; he supported the government forcing the state minimum wage. He also voted for drivers' licenses for illegal immigrants as well as expanding the authority to perform abortions to non-physicians.

He even supports gun control measures and other environmental laws which hinder business rather than expand economic opportunity. Plus his endorsement for a local control funding formula which has deprived highly qualified and excelling South Bay schools of much needed state revenue.

Muratsuchi has been quite the ideologue and reliably left-wing vote in the state legislature despite his protestations during the 2012 campaign. His voting record did not line up with his campaign rhetoric, and his values do not line up with the moderate views of South Bay Voters.

Having lost the June 3rd primary by a growing margin, will Muratsuchi lose the general election by a similar, howbeit slim, margin? The new ground game from the South Bay Republican Party suggests as much, plus a growing weariness from voters who have witnessed the flight of businesses (including Toyota) as well as the deprivation of economic and academic opportunities for younger constituents. The year 2014 will be bad for Democrats in general (due to Obama's lagging poll numbers and numerous scandals, including the latest immigration crisis along the US-Mexico border). Whatever last-minute efforts pushed Muratsuchi to the win in 2012 will not help him this year.

Is Muratsuchi afraid yet?

He should be.